Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 1.000192 1.139445 1.287097 1.454897 1.639875 1.837133 2.062958
2025-02-09 0.772545 0.957224 1.165978 1.417814 1.711698 2.042100 2.439854
2025-02-16 0.607921 0.818163 1.070989 1.393606 1.790224 2.257646 2.845559
2025-02-23 0.464415 0.681412 0.959483 1.334771 1.820120 2.418300 3.201980
2025-03-02 0.344896 0.554766 0.842166 1.252755 1.811044 2.529552 3.507950
2025-03-09 0.272270 0.479041 0.780775 1.235281 1.882048 2.747052 3.965309
2025-03-16 0.211198 0.408249 0.715225 1.202791 1.928149 2.934664 4.397970
2025-03-23 0.176485 0.372118 0.695472 1.233633 2.065579 3.256611 5.034709
2025-03-30 0.134354 0.313614 0.630713 1.186755 2.083169 3.410269 5.447957
2025-04-06 0.105666 0.272582 0.587754 1.168093 2.140314 3.623754 5.959020
2025-04-13 0.081534 0.233923 0.541845 1.137579 2.174315 3.803454 6.430423
2025-04-20 0.067503 0.213091 0.525329 1.155572 2.288042 4.111564 7.110402
2025-04-27 0.055232 0.193429 0.509171 1.175131 2.411455 4.451624 7.873076
2025-05-04 0.044024 0.172540 0.486471 1.179339 2.508831 4.757179 8.601496
2025-05-11 0.035153 0.154629 0.466643 1.186411 2.611906 5.079075 9.374665
2025-05-18 0.026204 0.132213 0.431244 1.156223 2.643040 5.282037 9.967419
2025-05-25 0.018322 0.108663 0.386849 1.099376 2.616933 5.383916 10.398857
2025-06-01 0.014086 0.096129 0.368017 1.096292 2.694947 5.672274 11.156023
2025-06-08 0.010366 0.082975 0.343773 1.076550 2.736897 5.897868 11.816998
2025-06-15 0.008620 0.078020 0.342678 1.112621 2.897232 6.348128 12.885799
2025-06-22 0.005987 0.065597 0.314274 1.075483 2.898478 6.502718 13.444176
2025-06-29 0.004356 0.057236 0.296568 1.062892 2.951011 6.755854 14.187083
2025-07-06 0.003018 0.048874 0.275803 1.038187 2.973481 6.951381 14.833671